A quarterback has won the NFL MVP award in 44 of the 64 years they have been handing out the award. And 45 times in total (once Peyton Manning tied Steve McNair). More recently, a QB has won in each of the last 9 years. This confirms the idea that quarterback is the most important position in football. How would the all time MVP list look if every year they only voted a quarterback for MVP.
Using the JTA, we know who the statistically best quarterback is every year, or who is the statistical MVP. And because there is very good evidence that the JTA accurately predicts who is the MVP. We can use it to fill in the gaps of the years other positions won MVP and give it to the best quarterback.
** Fran Tarkenton was the best quarterback that year but doesn’t qualify for a statistical MVP as his JTA Rank Sum is 19.
Now that we have the list of quarterbacks who would have won MVP, had it been given to the most valuable position. We can combine it with the years they gave the wrong quarterback the MVP, and use it to get a list of the best statistical quarterbacks every year. Looking at the list in the entirety, we can compare how different careers change if it was always given to the best quarterback.
*Peyton Manning and Fran Tarkenton each had a year where they were the best QB but did not qualify for an all pro season. So while Manning was the best quarterback in 7 years, he only qualified for 6 MVPs.
For every multiple time statistical MVP winner, it is pretty similar. The glaring difference is poor Roger Staubach. Five times he was the single best quarterback in the league and he was never awarded the MVP. Of the five times, three times the NFL gave it to a running back, once they gave it to DT Alan Page, and once to QB Terry Bradshaw (to his defense was barely beaten out as the best QB that year). He would probably be a much bigger name, closer to the likes of Johnny U and Joe Montana if the NFL had awarded him even 3 of the 5 MVPs.
Peyton Manning is another difference where ironically he had one year where he was awarded MVP but was not the statistical MVP. But he had 3 years, where he was the statistical MVP and they gave the award to a running back.
The same thing with Johnny Unitas as Peyton Manning, where he won MVP in a year he shouldn’t. But twice running back Jim Brown beat him out for MVP when he was the best quarterback.
All of Aaron Rodgers’, Tom Brady’s, and Brett Favre’s MVPs line up with the year they actually won the award. Steve Young and Joe Montana both should have an extra MVP. Steve Young would have joined Brett Favre with winning three straight MVPs.
Oldies
Because the algorithm is not limited to modern voting and just uses statistics, you can look at who would have won the MVPs if they started handing them out before 1957. This can go back to 1932, the first year they started handing out statistics.
It’s important to remember before the merger because there are so few teams. There is only, on average, one AllPro every season (some seasons have 0,1 or 2 AllPros). To get a statistical MVP you need to have an AllPro level season and be the single best QB.
Otto Graham is a legend! He only played for 6 years in the NFL, and he was the best quarterback every year except his first where he finished as the second best quarterback. He also piled together 4 statistical MVPs, which places him only behind Peyton Manning and Roger Staubach.
Cecil Isbel cobbled together 3 statistical MVP season by just bombing away to Don Hutson. If you haven’t heard of him, I highly recommend this article. Isbel played for only 5 years in the late 30’s to early 40’s for the Green Bay Packers. Not very famous due to his very brief career and no playoff success, but he does have 3 statistical MVPs.
Sammy Baugh and Sid Luckman are legendary rivals who each have 2 statistical MVPs. Luckman does have 2 other years as the best quarterback but considering he didn’t have an AllPro level season, they’re comparable to the 4 other years Baugh was the second best player.
Arnie Herber, of the Green Bay Packers, is the oldest player on this list. His career was starting right when the NFL started keeping track of statistics. Playing his entire career in the 1930’s he was one of the rare true passers as he frequently averaged less than 10 rushing yards a game. Even with that limitation he still dominated through the air and would have had two MVPs if that was a thing back then.