The Jackson Turner Algorithm (JTA)
The Jackson Turner Algorithm (JTA), named after the man who made it, is a statistical algorithm designed to rank the top 32 quarterbacks every year based solely on statistics, removing any and all biases any analyst might naturally have. This algorithm combines all of a quarterback’s counting statistics like passing/rushing yards, passing/rushing touchdowns, interceptions, and fumbles, with how much a quarterback wins, and how efficient they were. The player gets a final score called their Rank Sum which, when compared to everyone else’s’ Rank Sum, determines how good their year was and where they rank on the year.
Testing the JTA.
To test the algorithm, every time a QB won the MVP was compared to the statistical best quarterback found by the JTA. The results:
The last 11 times a QB won MVP, the JTA had all of them as the statistical best QB (100%)
Of the last 27 years a QB won MVP, 26 times the JTA concurred that they were the best QB (96.3%)
Of the 45 years a QB was named MVP, 41 times the JTA had them as the best QB (91.1%)
If you want to see a deep dive on the years the voters didn’t vote the statistically best quarterback, read this article
Looking at the results, you can see that the JTA can correctly predict the best player for a given year. Now that we know, with a high confidence rate, that it can determine the best player, the JTA uses the same formula to determine the 2nd best, 3rd best, 4th best and so on until it has the top 32 quarterbacks every year.
Details of the JTA
The JTA produces the best quarterbacks every year based only on statistics and more importantly how they compare to their competition. An important thing to realize is because all quarterbacks, whether it is 2022 or 1992 or 1962, are just compared to their own competition, you can use the JTA to compare quarterbacks in different eras. You do need to be careful because one logical fallacy is saying the 3rd best quarterback one year is just as good as the 3rd best quarterback another year. This, potentially, could be very wrong. In one year, three QBs could all have phenomenal seasons and strong considerations for the best QB that year, in a different year the third best one could be nowhere close to the best QB. To make comparing across eras easier, the JTA broke all quarterbacks up into 6 tiers: All Pro (top 2), Elite (top 5), Great (top 10), Good (top 16), Adequate (top 22), and Bad/injured (the rest). The JTA then found the rank sum needed, so there was an average of two players, every year, to qualify for the All Pro tier, and it did the same thing for the rest of the tiers. Now instead of comparing where a player finished the year ranked as, you can actually compare how good a player’s season was. For example, in 2019, Russell Wilson was the second best quarterback but he didn’t have nearly as good of a season as Josh Allen in 2020, who finished as the third best quarterback. With the tiers, Allen finishes with an All Pro season because three quarterbacks earned it that year, while in 2019, only Lamar Jackson finishes with an All Pro season because he is the only quarterback who played at that level that season.