Most Undeserving MVPs of All Time

There have been 66 MVPs since the NFL started handing out the award. 45 times a quarterback won the award, 18 times a running back won the award, and once a linebacker, defensive tackle, and kicker won the MVP. 

Considering over the last 21 years, a quarterback won the award 18 times. And a quarterback has won the last 9 straight MVPs, this is a QB dominated award. This is for a good reason as quarterback is very much the most important position in football. 

Running backs have won the second most MVPs, so it is natural to compare that position as potentially close to the same level as quarterbacks. But when you consider Barry Sanders, who is universally considered a top 3 running back of all time, only won one single playoff game. It becomes clear that quarterbacks, who touch the ball every play, and even manipulate the play before it starts, are the most impactful and valuable position. 

This list today is going to look at all the quarterbacks who have won an MVP, and using the JTA (algorithm that determines the best quarterbacks every year), we’ll rank which ones are the least deserving of MVP, when they won it. 

Of the 46 times a quarterback has won MVP, 41 times they were statistically the best quarterback that year (according to the JTA). This list is about the 5 times a quarterback won MVP but was not the best quarterback.

#5:

Steve McNair 2003 MVP

What Happened: Steve McNair falls into the fifth spot on, instead of higher on the list because he didn’t win the MVP outright. In 2003 McNair tied Peyton Manning for the MVP, only the second MVP tie in NFL history (Brett Favre and Barry Sanders tied in 1997) and the first between two quarterbacks.

Where he ranked: Statistically, Peyton Manning was the best quarterback that year with a Rank Sum of 7. Steve McNair came in second with a Rank Sum of 13, still finishing the year as an All Pro caliber quarterback. The main thing that dropped McNair behind Manning was wins, he only had 10 wins. Which resulted in five different quarterbacks having more wins than him including Manning (12) and Tom Brady (14). 

Why Did He Win: There could be a few reasons why MVP voters went against the statistically better quarterback to vote for McNair. 

One reason why Peyton Manning was seemingly docked, even though he had clearly the better statistics is his supporting cast around him. Peyton Manning had Pro-Bowl level players in Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, and Dallas Clark, even though Dallas Clark was just a rookie. Meanwhile, McNair’s best weapon was WR Derrick Mason, and while Mason did make the pro bowl the Titans were not considered to have nearly the weapons the Colts had. 

Another reason why voters might have voted against Peyton Manning, either consciously or subconsciously, was public perception. At the time, Steve McNair was considered the sole reason for the Titan’s success. He was also playing through injuries throughout the year, and led the Titans to a much better record than many expected. And while it’s unfair to Peyton, he can’t control whether or not someone is hurt, many of the voters who voted for McNair most likely factored that in.

Overall: First it is important to point out that half the voters still gave it to the true statistical MVP, Peyton Manning. And while Steve McNair had an amazing season, which was still worthy of an AllPro nod and the second best year of any quarterback. He was not as dominant as Peyton Manning and it should have been Manning’s award alone. 

Number 4:

Peyton Manning 2009

For the years after the last expansion to 32 teams, to have an All Pro caliber season you need a rank sum of 13 or better.

What Happened: 2009 was a year of incredible quarterback play. 

Drew Brees: 13-2 and threw for 4,388 yards, 36 total touchdowns, 11 ints.

Aaron Rodgers: 11-5 and threw for 4,434 yards, 35 total touchdowns, 7 ints

Brett Favre: 12-4 and threw for 4,202 yards, 33 total touchdowns, 7 ints

Peyton Manning: 14-2 and threw for 4,500 yards, 33 total touchdowns, 16 ints

All these quarterbacks put up crazy statistics on very successful teams.

Where he ranked: Statistically Peyton Manning checks in having the 4th best season but still good enough to have an All Pro season with a rank sum 13. 

In front of him, Drew Brees had the best season with a rank sum of 7. Then Aaron Rodgers with a rank sum of 11. And Brett Farve with a rank sum of 12. While Manning had the most wins out of everyone, all three of the quarterbacks in front of him had better general statistics and efficiency. While he was still great in those categories finishing 4th and 6th respectively, those finishes still made him slide down the list and not the statistical MVP.

Why did he win: Peyton Manning was not the best quarterback, when looking at the entirety of the 2009 season. But he was still an insanely good quarterback and benefited greatly from a running narrative and conversation around the team. That conversation was “perfection”, and more specifically could the Colts go 16-0? The Colts started off 14-0 and with Peyton Manning playing extremely well, everyone just assumed he was having the best season. Even though the Colts lost their last 2 games, after months of Peyton Manning staying at the top of the MVP boards due to the team’s success, he was able to coast to win the MVP. The problem was that with the Colts and Manning’s season-long quest for a perfect season running the narrative, phenomenal years by other quarterbacks did not get the attention and credit that they were due. Specifically, Drew Brees who went 13-2 and led the Saints to the number one seed in the NFC while compiling 4,421 total yards and 36 total touchdowns. Which was just 66 fewer total yards than Manning and three more touchdowns.

Overall: Peyton Manning has the most statistical MVPs with six, even though he was only awarded five in real life. Ironically, even though the NFL should have awarded him with more MVPs than they actually did, he should not have won it this year. Now, he still had an incredible year, a year deserving of making an All Pro team but he was not the best quarterback this year. Drew Brees finished with better general stats, was the most efficient quarterback in the league and had only one less win than Manning, he should have received his first and only NFL MVP this year. The fact that Manning still finished with an All Pro caliber year while finishing as the 4th best quarterback shows how insane the quarterback play was that year. It is only the second time since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger that four quarterbacks all qualified for an All Pro season. While Peyton Manning deserves and got a lot of MVPs, there were better qualified candidates for the award this year.

Number 3:

Bart Starr 1966

For the years before the NFL-AFL merger, to have an AllPro caliber season you needed a rank sum of 8 or better. To have an Elite caliber season you needed a rank sum of 15 or better.

What Happened: The top 3 passers were

Don Meredith: record: 9-3-1, threw for 2805, 29 total touchdowns, 12 ints

Frank Ryan: record: 9-5-0, threw for 2974, 29 total touchdowns, 14 ints

Bart Starr: record: 11-2-0, threw for 2257, 16 total touchdowns, 3 ints

Where he ranked: Bart Starr finished as the 3rd best quarterback with a rank sum of 10. Which is solidly in the middle of Elite seasons tier. He finished behind Don Meredith who had a rank sum of 7, and Frank Ryan who had a rank sum of 8. Who both had AllPro level seasons.

Why did he win: The obvious reason is the winning and the efficiency, the two things that make Bart Starr a legend. Starr led the Packers to the best record in the league and had by far the best passer rating in the league. Another major factor, was at that point Starr was a living legend, having previously won 4 championships (he would go on to win his 5th this year). You can see how when a legend who just put up his statistically best year, is on the best team in the league, and had one of the most efficient years ever, he would get the vote. The only problem was he wasn’t asked to do nearly as much on a stacked Green Bay Packers squad. And while his efficiency was fantastic his yards and touchdowns were both dwarfed by Meredith and Ryan.

Overall: Bart Starr had a fantastic season but did not have the statistical output to match the seasons of Don Meredith or Frank Ryan. Especially considering they both won a lot of games and had good passer ratings as well. Bart Starr is a legend and a Hall of Famer, he just wasn’t the best quarterback in the NFL this year, or at very least he wasn’t asked to do enough to warrant the MVP this year. To be the most VALUABLE, is partly determined by how much you are asked to do for your team. Starr was by far the most efficient quarterback in the league but he wasn’t asked to put up the yards and touchdowns that Meredith and Ryan had to. Ultimately, he was the third best quarterback this year. 

Number 2:

Johnny Unitas 1967

For years before the merger, to have an AllPro caliber season you needed a rank sum of 8 or better. To have an Elite caliber season you needed a rank sum of 15 or better.

What Happened: The year after the voters messed up with giving Bart Starr the MVP, they messed up even worse with Johnny Unitas. This was a year where there was no clear leader for MVP, with four different quarterbacks all bunched up at the top. This time instead of all of the top quarterbacks playing fantastic, none of the quarterbacks were playing particularly MVP worthy. While all the quarterbacks were still having elite seasons, none of them had an All Pro caliber season. 

Roman Gabriel: record: 11-1-2, threw for 2,779 yards, 31 total touchdowns, 13 ints

Fran Tarkenton: record: 7-7-0, threw for 3,088 yards, 31 total touchdowns, 19 ints

Sonny Jurgenson: record: 5-6-3, threw for 3,747 yards, 33 total touchdowns, 16 ints

Johnny Unitas: record: 11-1-2, threw for 3,428 yards, 20 total touchdowns, 16 ints

Where he ranked: Johnny Unitas was the 4th best quarterback in 1967, with a rank sum 15 which barely gives him an Elite level season. In front of him Roman Gabriel had the best season with a rank sum of 10. Fran Tarkenton had a rank sum of 11. And Sonny Jurgenson had a rank sum of 13.

Why did he win: The main reason why Johnny Unitas won MVP, over three other players who all had slightly better seasons, is that he was on the team with the best record. Now Roman Gabriel had the same record, but back then the voting took place before the last game of the season. And at the time the Colts were 11-0-2, and Gabriel’s Rams were 10-1-2. Of course then the Rams crushed the Colts 34-10 and Gabriel had his best week of the season with Unitas having one of his worst.

Outside of record, another reason that might have turned the voters to elect a statistically inferior quarterback is popularity. Johnny Unitas was the face of the league and the most popular quarterback who was on, at the time of the vote, the team with the best record in the league.

Overall: This was a really weird year where no one player really stood out, and no one was super deserving for the MVP. But when looking at the season as a whole Roman Gabriel should have barely beaten out Fran Tarkenton for the MVP if you had to choose one. Especially when you consider that Unitas only had 20 touchdowns compared to the top three guys all having over 30 touchdowns. Ultimately, according to the JTA, Unitas barely finished with an Elite level season and was the 4th best quarterback that year. Even in a year where no quarterbacks stood out from the rest, the fact that he wasn’t that close to making an All Pro season and nearly falling out of even having an Elite season, makes him the 2nd most undeserving quarterback to ever win the award.

Number 1:

John Elway 1987

What Happened: In 1987, Joe Montana and the 49ers had a dominant year going 13-2, with a few other quarterbacks also having fantastic seasons. The Broncos led by a young John Elway went 10-4-1 and had the best record in the AFC, but only the fifth best record in the NFL. 

Joe Montana: record: 10-1, threw for 3,054 yards, 31 total touchdowns, 13 ints

Dan Marino: record: 7-5, threw for 3,245 yards, 27 total touchdowns, 13 ints

Bernie Kosar: record: 8-4, threw for 3,033 yards, 23 total touchdowns, 9 ints

John Elway: record: 8-3-1, threw for 3,198 yards, 24 total touchdowns, 12 ints

Where he ranked: John Elway was the 4th best quarterback with a rank sum 22, which is the middle of the Elite tier, not close to the All Pro tier. Ahead of him was:

Joe Montana, rank sum of 4. Nearly a perfect year.

Dan Marino, rank sum of 14.

Bernie Kosar, rank sum of 17.

Why did he win: Why did John Elway win MVP over Joe Montana is a really interesting question. It was not a down year where no one deserved it and they gave it to the most popular and winningest quarterback like Johnny Unitas in ‘67. Because Montana had the best record and was extraordinarily popular. He was not a living legend who just put up a historic season in a specific statistic, like Bart Starr’s passer rating in ‘66. It was not extremely close statistically and he won out because of the team’s performance like Peyton Manning in ‘09. When looking at just the statistics, it does not make sense why Elway won MVP. That is because he was not the statistical best quarterback, statistically he wasn’t close, Joe Montana played in one less game but still had more wins, nearly the same amount of yards, a bunch more touchdowns and a better passer rating. In fact, Dan Marino and even Bernie Kosar also had slightly better statistical seasons. 

John Elway won the MVP because of an outside factor that had nothing to do with the quarterback’s individual level of play. That factor was 49ers super star wide receiver Jerry Rice. Rice was so dominant that he took 36 percent of all MVP votes for himself, splitting votes between him and Montana, letting John Elway sneak out the win. Whether voters voted for Rice instead of Montana or voted for Elway because he didn’t have another MVP candidate to throw to like Montana had, either way it was Jerry Rice’s dominance that swayed this voting for Elway over Montana. 

Now why Elway finished over other candidates like Dan Marino or Bernie Kosar is a little more nuanced. It would probably vary from voter to voter but it could be the perception that Elway had less to work with around him, which meant he was carrying the team more. Marino was almost definitely docked for only having 7 wins, even though Elway only started for 8 of the Broncos 10 wins, due to a players strike in the middle of the year.  Another factor is definitely that Elway still had fantastic overall stats, finishing only behind Montana and Marino. Interestingly, the voters who did vote for Elway (less than half, due to the Rice/Montana split) did not focus on Elway’s efficiency. While he had a fantastic year his efficiency was the main thing dragging him down, finishing 13th in that category.

Overall: John Elway is by far the least deserving quarterback to ever win MVP. Not only did he not even have an AllPro caliber season, and statistically 3 other quarterbacks had better seasons. But also a different quarterback had a legendary season. The stark contrast of him not being worthy right next to a quarterback who is more than worthy, makes it even more clear that John Elway should not have this MVP. Even if you factor in Jerry Rice and eliminate Joe Montana from consideration (which you shouldn’t, most MVPs have great receivers/ supporting casts), two other quarterbacks still had better seasons. Again, John Elway is a legend, but not the 1987 NFL MVP.