The JTA has predicted 26 of the last 27 quarterbacks who won MVP correctly. By just using statistics we know, with a very high confidence rate, who is going to be the most valuable player. With the NFL regular season wrapped up, we can now officially say who had the statistically best season. Whether or not he actually wins remains to be seen, but this year there does seem to be one clear top choice.
The MVP
#1 Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes for the vast majority of the year was the leading MVP candidate, and ever since Jalen Hurts was out for a few weeks it was Mahomes’ award to lose. Of course Mahomes’ play continued to be stellar as he finished the season with four straight weeks as the number one player for MVP. Overall, Patrick Mahomes had a monster season as he finished tied with the best record, and had the most total yards for any quarterback of all time. It is his second statistical MVP in his first five years starting in the NFL, an absolutely insane accomplishment considering, since the merger, only nine other players have had two statistical MVPs, in total, in their entire careers. This is also Mahomes’ lowest rank sum he has ever had in his career, making it arguably the most impressive season of his short, but highly accomplished, career so far. Patrick Mahomes is off to a legendary start, and while it is unrealistic to predict that he’ll ever catch Tom Brady, everyone else, it seems, is fair game, he is just that good. If for some strange unexplainable reason he does not win the NFL MVP this year, he will immediately go very high on the list of players who got robbed of their rightful MVP. Especially considering he led the league in passing touchdowns, passing yards, QBR, had tied for the most wins, and had the second best passer rating. So while he needs to wait a few weeks to officially become the NFL MVP, right now he has already locked in his second statistical MVP. So congratulations Mr. Mahomes the world is yours, and in 2022, you were the best quarterback in it.
The MVP Runner Up
#2 Jalen Hurts
Let’s not misconstrued the fact that Jalen Hurts missed a few weeks and had a poor week 18 as him not having a fantastic season. Jalen Hurts was electric all year as he propelled the Philadelphia Eagles to the number one seed in the NFC and tied for the best record in the NFL. In a large part due to his elite rushing ability, he had career highs in rushing yards and touchdowns. Despite missing two games, he still finished with the fourth most rushing yards by a quarterback and easily the most rushing touchdowns. In fact, Jalen Hurts finished with the second most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a season with 13, only one behind Cam Newton, and he missed two games. This is not to discount his passing which was fantastic as he finished with the fourth highest passer rating in the NFL and was still top ten in passing yards. Hurts had a true breakout season in his third year, this season. His rookie season he only started four games and was a backup the vast majority of the time, last year he established himself as the starter the entire year, finishing as the 16th best quarterback and one of the most average quarterbacks in the NFL. This year, he exploded, with times being the front runner for MVP and ultimately finishing with the second best season, and an All Pro caliber season. Hurts is officially the Eagles quarterback for the future.
The Elite Tier
#3 Josh Allen
Josh Allen for the majority of the time looks like a God amongst men, with him easily scrambling around and throwing lasers around the field. But every once in a while, he tries to do too much or tries to force a ball into a window when he should just throw it away. Ultimately, this led him to being tied for the third most interceptions in the NFL this year, and dropped his efficiency all the way to eighth best in the NFL. While his upside is best quarterback in the NFL, his just a little too common inconsistencies, hold him back. He was still electric for most of the year as he piled up the statistics finishing with the second most total yards and total touchdowns, only behind Patrick Mahomes in both categories. This year he just missed out for qualifying for an All Pro caliber season but still had a fantastic year finishing with the third best season in the NFL.
#4 Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are neck and neck, with Burrow being slightly more efficient and Allen having slightly better statistics. Unfortunately, due to the freak Damar Hamlin accident, neither had a chance to one up each other in their head to head matchup. But they do finish right next to each other, at the top of the Elite quarterbacks tier. Joe Burrow continues his fantastic start to his career, while his rookie season was cut short due to an ACL injury, he bounced back in a huge way his second year finishing as the 6th best quarterback. This year he upped his play again finishing as the fourth best quarterback and his second straight Elite level season. Burrow finished with nearly the exact same amount of yards, with three more total yards than last year, so technically a career high, but also upped his touchdowns and lowered his interceptions. If he improves even more next year, he might just finish with the MVP, Joe Burrow only just now finished his third season in the NFL but he is already one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
#5 Geno Smith
Holy shit I cannot say enough about Geno Smith! The NFL wrote him off and he did write back! Holy hell that is a fantastic quote by a quarterback who just pulled off maybe the most surprising season this year. No one, and I mean no one, outside of maybe Geno himself (and that’s questionable) thought he was going to be this good this season. After being in the NFL for eight seasons and a backup the last six seasons with the Jets, Giants, and Seahawks, he finally got another chance to be a team’s quarterback for the entire year. He was fantastic leading the Seahawks to a winning record and the playoffs while having the fifth most total touchdowns, the sixth most total yards and the fifth best passer rating. Unsurprisingly, those are easily his best numbers of his entire career and he improved from his previous best season, where he was the 28th best quarterback as a rookie for the Jets in 2013, to the fifth best quarterback in the NFL. To make a jump from a perennial backup to the Elite tier of quarterback play is virtually unheard for veteran quarterbacks. Geno Smith is now a free agent and most likely has a huge contract coming his way, even though I would be shocked if Pete Carroll lets him leave Seattle.
#6 Jared Goff
What a weird year for quarterbacks, if Geno Smith wasn’t already the biggest surprise, then Jared Goff would have been a more than worthy candidate. Also if you think Jared Goff shouldn’t be this high up on the list, then I feel like there is a chance you are greatly underestimating just how good Goff was the second half of the season. In the final nine games, Goff led the Lions to a 7-2 record while throwing for 2,395 yards, 15 touchdowns and no interceptions. I’m not sure if you understand that correctly, he threw no interceptions in over 300 straight pass attempts the second half of the year! If you apply those statistics to an entire season he would have gone 13-4 with 4,528 yards, 28 touchdowns and no interceptions, those are legitimate MVP numbers. Last year Jared Goff finished as the 24th best quarterback and was inconsistent at best, with stretches of just bad play. This year while he started slow, he finished so strong that he ended the year with an Elite Tier season. With his free agency coming up, he timed arguably his best season at the best time, someone is going to give him big money and with the Lions actually starting to look good I would be shocked if they let him leave.
The Great Tier
#7 Kirk Cousins
Classic Kirk Cousins finishing in the top ten but lacking real upside that could make him finish with an Elite season. This is the fourth year in a row where he has made it into the Great tier but not finishing in the Elite tier, even though this was his best year. For a while it looked like he was actually going to pull off an Elite season. In weeks 14-16 he was averaging nearly 400 yards a game and threw 9 touchdowns, but then he face planted in a horrendous game in Green Bay, where he had three interceptions and two fumbles, and after an unimpressive week 18 he finished with the seventh best quarterback this year. Kirk Cousins is a really good quarterback but the question that always comes back to him is can he take a team over the top? In the regular season he has always topped out as, at best, the 7th best quarterback. The good news is this was arguably one of his best seasons and it was with a rookie head coach, if he can take another step next year, it would be huge for the Vikings.
#8 Tua Tagovailoa
No quarterback was more up and down than Tua this year. In the beginning of the year, he was right in the middle, if not leading, the MVP race. His highlights included a six touchdown game and a three week stretch where he threw 969 yards, 9 touchdowns and no interceptions. All of which is just fantastic stuff. Then he also had multiple stretches where he was hurt and or played poorly, including his three interceptions and two fumble day against the Packers. At the end of everything, he still had a great season and had the highest passer rating in the NFL but the missed games really hurt him. In the rankings, he finished eighth, and just one point ahead of the ninth best player, and usually that kind of season locks you in for at least another year. But with multiple concussions throughout the season and his already smaller frame and injury history, the Dolphins should keep their eyes open for a chance to upgrade to a more sturdy quarterback. If they do rock with Tagovailoa next year, it would be a super boom or bust decision because, as we saw this year, he has the upside of being an All Pro quarterback but downside of being constantly hurt and there are still a few questions about his consistency. Tua had a great year this year but what his future looks like is still very questionable.
#9 Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence’s future on the other hand, is looking fantastic, as he was phenomenal the second half of the year. Over the final nine weeks, the Jaguars went 7-2 and Lawrence was outstanding, throwing for 2,273 yards and 15 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions. For context, that is three more touchdowns than he had his entire rookie season. All of his statistics from his rookie season spiked as he had career highs across the board. According to the JTA, Lawrence finished his rookie season as the 29th best quarterback in the NFL. One year later, he finished with the ninth best season, and had better seasons than Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert. If Trevor Lawrence can improve that much just one year removed from Urban Meyer you have to assume he’ll be even better next year, especially with Calvin Ridley coming off his suspension next year.
#10 Justin Herbert
Even though Justin Herbert took a step down from his last year, where he still had a very productive year leading the Chargers to the playoffs. For the season, he had the third most total yards of any quarterback, only behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, but was only 11th in touchdowns and 12th in passer rating. Finishing in the Great Tier of quarterbacks is usually a cause of celebration but with last season’s Rank Sum of 26, where he snuck into the Elite Tier, this feels like the Chargers left some meat on the bone. This upcoming offseason is going to be all about how the Chargers can get Herbert back into the top tier of quarterbacks, especially because his next year will be his last year of his rookie contract. Justin Herbert is a fantastic young player and there is going to be a lot of pressure on the Chargers to optimize his prime years.