The JTA has predicted 26 of the last 27 quarterbacks who won MVP correctly. By just using statistics we know, with a very high confidence rate, who is going to be the most valuable player. Because the JTA can predict who is going to be awarded at the end of the season, it stands to reason it can predict who would theoretically be awarded MVP if the season stopped today.
The Top MVP Contenders
#1 Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes continues to widen his lead on the race for the NFL MVP. This week the Chiefs held on to win against the Broncos 27-24, and with Jalen Hurts missing another week, Mahomes was able to tie him for most wins so far this year. Of course he had another huge week stats wise throwing for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns with only one interception. With only one week to go, he has locked down the number one spot in the general statistics category, considering he has over 600 total yards and 6 touchdowns more than the second closest competition. While being one of the most efficient passers on one of the best teams in the NFL, it looks like Mahomes is one week away from locking in his second MVP.
#2 Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts used to be winning this race a few weeks ago, but missing the last few weeks has really hurt, no pun intended, his MVP chances. In fact, not only is he far behind Mahomes for MVP but there is a chance that he might not even finish with an All Pro caliber season. He did get a break this last week with the Bills vs Bengals game getting canceled, at least for now, as Joe Borrow and Josh Allen would have had an opportunity to potentially catch him. Of course the thing that has dropped Hurts the most over the last two weeks of being inactive, is the Wins category. While he is still tied for the most wins, previously Hurts had two more wins over everyone else in the NFL which gave him a huge Wins Bonus of -4. There is a chance he could move up in the General Statistics category next week, but unless it is an insane monster performance catching Patrick Mahomes is probably out of the question.
The Elite Tier
#3 Josh Allen
Josh Allen has been a little up and down this year but he is currently playing at a very high level. Currently, he is right on the outside looking in for an All Pro caliber season. He didn’t move from last week due to his game being, at least momentarily, canceled. He could finish anywhere from the number 2 to number 5 ranked quarterback, even though it’s much more likely he finishes on the higher end. The real question is will his last week be good enough to give him an All Pro caliber season?
#4 Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are neck and neck, with Burrow being slightly more efficient and Allen having slightly better statistics. Unfortunately due to the freak Damar Hamlin accident, neither had a chance to one up each other in their head to head matchup. One more fantastic game can still propel Burrow into the All Pro tier, but it looks likely he’ll just finish with an Elite level season. These have been the clear top four quarterbacks so far this year, but one more quarterback did qualify as having an Elite season.
#5 Geno Smith
What a season Geno Smith is having, in by far his best season of his career, he has went from a backup to one week away from having an Elite, top five caliber season. Most recently, he completed his own personal revenge game against the Jets to knock them out of the playoffs. He played the game with a very steady hand, making the plays that were there but not forcing anything that could make them lose the game. While his stats were not mind blowing, picking up the win is the most important one as it inches the Seahawks closer to the playoffs. He went 18-29 for 183 yards and two touchdowns, he also added 18 yards rushing but most importantly, did not turn the ball over. He finished with a very good 103.1 passer rating, which is nearly identical to what he was averaging this year.
The Great Tier
#6 Tua Tagovailoa
Tua has had a really weird year, there was a good chunk of time where he was playing at an All Pro level season, the Dolphins were 8-3 and he was in the thick of the MVP conversation. But now the Dolphins are only 8-8 and he has fallen off the proverbial cliff, in part due to poor play and in part due to injury. In his last active game against the Packers, he threw three second half interceptions and was not impressive and now he missed his most recent game, and looks like he’ll most likely miss next week too. Don’t get me wrong, concussions are serious and his health is the most important, but missing his fourth full game next week will definitely put a damper on how people remember this season for him. When he has played he’s been the most efficient quarterback in the league and he will most likely land somewhere in the top 10 but he will not finish with an Elite season even after having an incredible All Pro caliber start.
#7 Jared Goff
Jared Goff has another great game, going 21-29 for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns and a fantastic passer rating of 133.5. With all the production going to great use as the Lions blasted the Bears 41-10. With a huge game statistically, while being very efficient and picking up another win, Goff has moved from a Rank Sum of 35 (solidly in the middle of a great season) to just outside an Elite season. Jared Goff has turned the Lions around this second half of the season, as they have gone 7-2 over their last nine games and now are sitting just on the outside of the playoffs.
#8 Kirk Cousins
Oh man Kirk Cousins had a rough day against the Green Bay Packers. Not only did he lose to the Vikings’ rivals 17-41 but he couldn’t get anything going the entire day. Eventually he finished with 18-31 for 205 yards with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions, he also fumbled it twice, losing one of them. All of the sloppy turnovers and low completion percentage turned into a lowly 49.2 passer rating. Last week, Cousins was in the midst of a fantastic stretch of games and it had inflated his Rank Sum all the way into the Elite territory at 25 but with his horrible showing against the Packers he has now fallen back into the middle of the Great Quarterback Seasons tier.
#9 Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence has had a meteoric rise this second half of the year. After week eight of the season he was having the 20th best season and a very solidly adequate year. Now he is in the top 10 and has been consistently playing like a franchise quarterback to build your team around. Ironically, his last week was probably his worst performance in the second half of the year, only totalling 156 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. But he was playing the terrible Texans and was able to lead his team to a very comfortable 31-3 victory. Now if he can beat a slumping Titans team who have lost six in a row, he will win his division, locking up a playoff spot, and almost definitely finish as a top 10 quarterback.
#10 Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert led the Chargers in blowing out the Rams 31-10. He was very efficient going 21-28 for 212 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. He had his second best passer rating of the entire season with a 119.9 rating. His rating before that was just 91.2 for the season. With his Rank Sum putting him near the edge of falling out of the Great Season tier, passer rating and how efficient he is could easily be the deciding factor between whether or not he finishes with a Good or Great Season. After this last week, Herbert actually went down slightly in Rank Sum (previously being at 41) because while he passed one player in efficiency the next player passed him in General Statistics.
#11 Tom Brady
Tom Brady had by far the best game of his season. When the Buccaneers needed him most, down by as much as 14 points against the Panthers with the division on the line, Brady and the passing offense finally exploded. Tom Brady went 34-45 for 432 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, add all that up and he ended with a fantastic 127.3 passer rating. It was the most yards, touchdowns, and highest passer rating he has had all year, and the Buccaneers pulled out the win 30-24 against the Panthers. With his huge statistical day, Tom Brady went from having the 11th best general stats to the eighth and went from being ranked 22nd in efficiency to 18th. Overall his Rank Sum went from 54, solidly in the middle of a Good season to jumping all the way to 42, which is just over the line for a Great season. The biggest thing holding Brady back is still his Efficiency, while he has a lot of yards which helps his general stats, he is also by far the NFL leader in pass attempts, which drags down his efficiency. With one more week to go, it’ll depend on how he plays against the Falcons on whether or not he finishes with a Great season.
#12 Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott is another player who has recently played his way right onto the edge of a Great Season. A lot has been made of his NFL high 14 interceptions, but with his impressive completion percentage (2nd) and average yards per pass attempt (6th), his efficiency is still quite good. It might not seem like he has thrown for a lot of yards or touchdowns but you also have to remember he has only played in 11 games this year. Same thing with the wins, he doesn’t get the credit for the Cowboys’ wins that he didn’t play in, only the games where he started. Last week the Cowboys handled the Titans as Dak Prescott played a little below his average. He was 29-41 for 282 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, his passer rating was just below his 95.8 average with a 85.6 rating. Right now he is currently just making a Great season, how well he plays the final week of the season will determine if he keeps it.